Can a first-time candidate beat an incumbent councillor?
The short answer
Yes. About one incumbent in four who faces a challenger loses. Ontario’s 2022 figures show 80.1% of incumbents kept their seat, but that counts the 388 who were acclaimed. Among incumbents who faced a vote about 75% won. Nearly half the Ontario council seats that went to a vote were won by someone new to council.
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How often do incumbent councillors win re-election in Canada?
In Ontario 80.1% of the 1,791 incumbents who ran again for the same office in 2022 were re-elected, up from 76.5% in 2018. In Quebec 81.4% of incumbent candidates were elected in 2025. BC and Alberta publish no provincial figure, so local results are the only guide there.
| Province | Year | Incumbents running | Elected | Includes acclaimed? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario | 2022 | 1,791 (same office) | 80.1% | Yes, 388 acclaimed |
| Ontario | 2018 | Not stated | 76.5% | Yes |
| Quebec | 2025 | 5,501 | 81.4% | Yes, 3,147 acclaimed |
| BC | 2022 | No official figure | ||
| Alberta | 2025 | No official figure |
By office, 82.9% of Quebec’s incumbent councillor candidates were elected. In mayor races the rate was 75.8%.
What are the odds when there is an actual race?
Lower than the headline. About 22% of Ontario incumbents were acclaimed in 2022. Take them out and roughly three in four incumbents who faced a challenger won. An incumbent who switched offices, for example from councillor to mayor, won 59.1% of the time.
| Ontario 2022 | Ran | Won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbents, same office, all | 1,791 | About 1,435 | 80.1% |
| Incumbents, same office, acclaimed | 388 | 388 | 100% |
| Incumbents, same office, facing a vote | About 1,403 | About 1,047 | About 75% |
| Incumbents running for a different office | 350 | 59.1% | |
| First-time candidates | 4,184 | 28.5% |
How many seats are open or acclaimed?
Many. About 550 Ontario seats were acclaimed in 2022 and a third of mayor and reeve races had one candidate. In 32 of 414 municipalities the whole council was acclaimed. In Quebec’s 2025 elections, 4,607 of 7,835 seats were filled without a vote. An acclaimed seat has no race at all, so the nomination deadline is the first decision point.
In Ontario’s 2026 field 2,161 incumbents are running, 32% of all candidates, beside 4,502 new candidates. Acclamations stand at 400, down from 548 in 2022.
In Quebec the acclamation rate was 63.8% for councillors and 52.5% for mayors in 2025.
How often do first-time candidates win?
In Ontario 28.5% of the 4,184 first-time candidates in 2022 were elected, up from about 26.7% in 2018. Of all 2,796 Ontario winners, 1,161 or 41.5% were not on council before the election.
Where there was a vote, the share is higher. Of the 2,252 Ontario seats decided by a vote in 2022, 1,049 or 46.6% went to someone who was not a sitting councillor. In Quebec newcomers took 58.7% of the seats decided by a vote in 2025.
What changes a challenger’s odds?
Start with whether the incumbent runs again, because an open seat has no incumbent to beat. Next is whether the seat is contested at all. Then comes the arithmetic of the seat: how many votes the last winner needed and how many people turned out. Those numbers differ ward by ward.
Average turnout across 385 Ontario municipalities was 32.9% in 2022, down from 38.30% in 2018. The votes-to-win data page shows the votes winners needed and the turnout behind them for every Ontario council race in 2022.
Once you know the target, the budget follows. How much it costs to run for council covers spending limits and what winners have spent.
Questions candidates ask
- What percentage of incumbent councillors get re-elected in Ontario?
- 80.1% in 2022, counting incumbents who were acclaimed. Among incumbents who faced a vote about 75% won.
- What does acclaimed mean in a municipal election?
- The candidate is declared elected without a vote because no one else was nominated for that seat.
- How many Ontario seats were acclaimed in 2022?
- About 550 of 2,842 positions, according to AMO. A third of mayor and reeve races had one candidate.
- Do first-time candidates ever win?
- Yes. In Ontario 28.5% of first-time candidates won in 2022, and 41.5% of all winners were new to council.
- Is it easier to win an open seat?
- No official Canadian rate compares open seats with incumbent seats. An open seat has no sitting councillor on the ballot, so every candidate starts without that advantage.
- Does Quebec publish incumbent statistics?
- Yes. The 2025 report from Quebec’s municipal affairs ministry shows 81.4% of incumbent candidates were elected and 4,607 of 7,835 seats were filled by acclamation.
- Where can I see how many votes the last winner needed in my ward?
- The votes-to-win data page shows what winners needed in every Ontario council race in 2022, built from official results.
Sources
Read next
- Votes it took to win a council seatThe vote count of the last candidate elected in every Ontario council race in 2022, with turnout and the method.
- How much does it cost to run for city council in Canada?What a competitive council race costs in Canada: spending limits by province, what winning councillors spent and the filing fee.
- Who can I hire to help me run for council, and what does it cost?The roles the law requires, how paid and free help count under BC, Ontario, Alberta and federal rules, what help costs and what to ask first.